## TAM 拆分 $28.5T + 规模挑战 $28.5T可量化 TAM 合计$26.5TAI$1.6T通信$370B太空 ENGLISH · ORIGINAL We estimate that our quantifiable TAM is $28.5 trillion, consisting of $370 billion in Space from space-enabled solutions; $1.6 trillion in Connectivity across $870 billion in Starlink Broadband and $740 billion in Starlink Mobile as well as additional opportunities in enterprise and government; $26.5 trillion in AI across $2.4 trillion in AI infrastructure, $760 billion in consumer subscriptions, $600 billion in digital advertising, and $22.7 trillion in enterprise applications. For illustrative purposes of sizing our addressable market opportunity, we exclude China and Russia from our global estimates. Space X's Estimated TAM by Segment Our Challenges We face a number of challenges relating to our business and growth strategy and, ultimately, the achievement of our mission to make life multiplanetary, understand the true nature of the universe, and extend the light of consciousness to the stars. The pursuit of our mission drives our decision-making and forms the foundation of our business plan, which is predicated on building, commercializing, and operating services and products at a scale that has not previously been achieved. This objective requires us to develop and integrate complex and novel technologies, develop new processes and infrastructure, and coordinate across multiple suppliers, contractors, regulators, and stakeholders. 中文翻译 **TAM 拆分 $28.5T + 规模挑战** 我们估算，**"可量化"的 TAM = 28.5 万亿美元**，拆开是： - **🌌 太空 $3,700 亿**——靠"**太空能力**"能解决的各种场景。 - **📡 通信 $1.6 万亿**——其中 **Starlink 宽带 $8,700 亿**、**Starlink Mobile $7,400 亿**，还有**企业 + 政府**的额外机会。 - **🤖 AI $26.5 万亿**——其中 **AI 基础设施 $2.4 万亿**、**消费订阅 $7,600 亿**、**数字广告 $6,000 亿**、**企业应用 $22.7 万亿**。 **说明**：为了方便估算"可触达市场"的大小，**我们在全球数字里把中国和俄罗斯排除掉了**。 **SpaceX 按板块估算的 TAM**（详见招股书配图） **我们面临的挑战** 我们在**业务、增长战略**上——最终也就是在**"让人变成多行星物种 / 真正理解宇宙 / 把意识带到星星那里"**这个使命上——**面临着一系列挑战**。**对使命的追求**驱动着我们的**每一个决策**，也构成我们商业计划的底色。这个商业计划的**前提**是：**建造、商业化、运营一些"前所未有规模"的服务和产品**。要做到这件事，我们必须： - **开发和整合复杂且新颖的技术**； - **开发新的工艺和基础设施**； - **和大量供应商、承包商、监管机构、利益相关方协同**。 #### 📝 翻译者注 - **"TAM（Total Addressable Market，可触达总市场）"**：公司理论上的最大可赚市场。这里 **$28.5T = 28.5 万亿美元**——是个非常大的数（接近美国一年 GDP）。 - **"空间能力（space-enabled solutions）"**：用"在太空有资产/能力"这件事去**解决地面上本来很难解决**的问题，比如**遥感、监测、地面通信盲区覆盖**等。 - **"企业应用 $22.7 万亿"**：这是 AI TAM 里最大的一块——**企业用 AI 替代/增强人力**（金融、医疗、法律、客服等所有行业）。 ⚠️ 规模挑战

## 挑战：从未有人达到过的执行规模 ENGLISH · ORIGINAL Because we are attempting to execute at a scale for which there is no precedent, we face heightened uncertainty with respect to design, engineering, procurement, construction, commissioning, and operational performance. In particular, our ability to execute our growth strategy is highly dependent on the successful development and scaling of Starship and the ability to increase our launch cadence, both of which are subject to challenges and uncertainties inherent in the development and deployment of new and complex technologies. Additionally, many of our initiatives described above under "Our Growth Strategies," including those to develop orbital AI compute at scale, manufacture AI chips at scale, establish a lunar economy, transport humans and cargo to the Moon and Mars, and develop human augmentation systems, involve significant technical complexity, unproven technologies or technologies that do not exist, and such initiatives may not achieve commercial viability. Many of the innovative products and services described elsewhere in this prospectus may ultimately be unsuccessful and may require great expense, innovations not yet achieved or technologies not yet developed. 中文翻译 **挑战：从未有人达到过的执行规模** 我们要做的事情**规模前所未有**——所以在**设计、工程、采购、建设、调试、运营表现**这六个环节上，**不确定性都比一般公司高**。特别是，**我们能不能执行好增长战略**——**高度依赖 Starship 的成功研发和量产**、以及**发射频率的提升**。**这两件事都受制于"新技术从研发到部署"过程中天然就有的挑战和不确定性**。 此外，**"我们的增长战略"那一节里提到的很多事**——包括**大规模发展轨道 AI 算力、大规模制造 AI 芯片、建立月球经济、把人和货物运到月球和火星、开发"数字人类增强"系统**——都涉及**极高的技术复杂度、未经验证的技术、甚至"还不存在的技术"**。**这些事不一定能最终做成、能赚钱**。本招股书里介绍到的**很多创新产品和服务，最终可能压根不成功**——而且**代价很大、需要还没实现的创新或还没开发出来的技术**。 ⏳ 100 GW 火星人时间表

## 100 GW / 月球经济 / 火星：时间表很难精确 + 未来市场很早期 ENGLISH · ORIGINAL As a result, the timeline for certain of our initiatives involving unproven or new innovations, including our goal of deploying 100 gigawatts of 12 Table of Contents annual compute power to orbit, the establishment of a lunar economy and interplanetary industrialization, and the launch cadence required to achieve these goals may be difficult or impossible to determine. Our growth strategy may take longer to execute than anticipated, and you may not realize a return on your investment within the timeframe you anticipate, or at all. In addition, a portion of our anticipated market opportunities is associated with industries described above under "Future Markets." Certain of these industries, such as space tourism and cargo transport to the Moon, are still emerging. Others, including in-orbit manufacturing, passenger transport to the Moon, passenger and cargo transport to Mars, energy production on the Moon and Mars, manufacturing capabilities on the Moon and Mars, and asteroid mining, do not exist today. While we believe these industries will develop over time, the manner in which they emerge, including the timing of commercialization, the scale and pace of adoption, and the applicable competitive, technical, regulatory, geopolitical, and economic frameworks may differ materially from our current expectations. 中文翻译 **100 GW / 月球经济 / 火星：时间表很难精确 + 未来市场很早期** 所以，下面这些涉及"**未经验证的创新**"的事——**时间表很难、甚至不可能精确预测**： - 我们的目标**每年向轨道部署 100 GW 算力**； - **建立月球经济 + 行星际工业化**； - 实现上述目标所需要的**发射频率**。 **我们的增长战略**——**可能比预期的要花更长时间**——**你可能无法在你预期的时间里、或者根本得不到投资回报**。 另外，**我们预测的一部分市场机会**是和"**未来市场**"那一节里说的行业绑定的。**有些行业**——比如**太空旅游、往月球运货**——**还处在早期**。还有些——**在轨制造、载人登月、载人 + 载货登火、在月球和火星上发电、在月球和火星上制造、小行星采矿**——**今天根本还不存在**。 **我们相信这些行业会随着时间慢慢发展起来**，但**它们会怎么出现**——**商业化的时点、规模和速度、背后的竞争/技术/监管/地缘/经济框架**——**很可能和现在的预期有重大差异**。 📊 三大板块挑战

## 三大板块的具体挑战（Space / Connectivity / AI） ENGLISH · ORIGINAL Our Space, Connectivity, and AI segments are also subject to the following challenges and uncertainties, among others. • Space: Our growth strategy depends on our ability to increase our launch cadence and payload capacity, which is dependent on the successful development of Starship at scale. Unexpected design modifications, supply chain disruptions, anomalies, environmental issues, and other unforeseen technical challenges could result in delays or failures to deploy Starship on our anticipated schedule, which would delay or impede our ability to achieve our other business objectives, such as the deployment of our next-generation satellites, the expansion of our satellite-to-mobile connectivity services, and deployment of in-orbit AI compute infrastructure. • Connectivity: Our satellite connectivity, including our global satellite-to-mobile connectivity services under Starlink Mobile, depend on access to radio frequency spectrum and authorizations from the Federal Communications Commission (the "FCC") in the United States and telecommunications regulators in other countries. Acquiring the necessary authorizations can be a complex and time-consuming process. Without these licenses and approvals, we cannot generally offer connectivity services in a given market. Spectrum access itself is limited and highly受 reg. 中文翻译 **三大板块的具体挑战（Space / Connectivity / AI）** 我们的**太空、通信、AI 三大板块**，还各自面临下面这些挑战和不确定性（只列部分）： - **🌌 太空（Space）**：**我们的增长战略**——**取决于能不能把发射频率和每次运量都提上去**——而**这又取决于 Starship 能不能成功实现规模化量产**。**意外的设计修改、供应链中断、异常情况、环境问题**等**我们没预见到的技术挑战**——都**可能导致 Starship 部署延期或失败**。这会进一步**拖慢或阻挡我们其他业务目标的实现**，比如： - **下一代卫星的部署**； - **卫星—手机直连通信服务的扩展**； - **在轨 AI 算力基础设施的部署**。 - **📡 通信（Connectivity）**：**我们的卫星通信服务**——包括 **Starlink Mobile 全球手机直连卫星**——**依赖两件事**： - **无线电频谱资源**； - **美国联邦通信委员会（FCC）和各国通信监管机构**颁发的**授权许可**。 **拿到这些授权的过程可能很复杂、很慢**。**没有这些执照和批准，我们通常没法在某个市场提供通信服务**。**频谱资源本身是有限的、受严格监管的**。 🛒 AI 板块挑战

## 通信市场推广 + AI 板块挑战（收尾） ENGLISH · ORIGINAL Additionally, the growth of our connectivity services depends on our ability to increase market awareness and acceptance of connectivity through Starlink across numerous international markets, each with its unique challenges. • AI: Our AI business is in a relatively early stage, it is being integrated into our organization, its business strategy is still developing, and it will require significant capital expenditures to fund compute, infrastructure and power generation, model training, and product development. Additionally, our AI business is subject to challenges inherent in a nascent, highly competitive, capital intensive and rapidly changing industry. These include the potential for disruptive technological change, evolving industry and regulatory standards, the emergence of new and well-funded competitors, frequent new product and service introductions, and changing customer demands. Any number of these challenges, and others that may be currently unknown to us, could have a negative impact on our business, financial condition, and results of operations. For a discussion of the challenges, risks, and limitations that could harm our future prospects, please refer to "Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements," "Risk Factors," and "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" included elsewhere in this prospectus. 中文翻译 **通信市场推广 + AI 板块挑战（收尾）** **通信板块**：除了频谱和监管，**我们通信服务的增长**还**取决于能不能在很多个国际市场**——**每个市场都有自己独特的挑战**——**让更多人知道并接受 Starlink**。 - **🤖 AI**：**我们的 AI 业务还处在比较早期的阶段**： - **正在被整合进我们的组织**； - **业务战略还在打磨中**； - **需要巨额资本开支**——投在**算力、电力基础设施和发电、模型训练、产品开发**上。 此外，**AI 业务本身**就处于**一个早期、竞争白热化、烧钱、变化极快的行业**——**它面临的挑战**包括： - **颠覆性技术变革**； - **行业标准、监管标准不断变化**； - **资金雄厚的新玩家不断冒出来**； - **新产品新服务层出不穷**； - **客户需求不断变化**。 **这些挑战中的任何一个**——以及**很多我们现在可能还不知道的**——**都可能给我们的业务、财务状况、经营结果带来负面影响**。要更全面地了解"**会伤害我们未来前景的挑战、风险和限制**"，请看招股书里其他章节的**"前瞻性陈述的警示性声明"**、**"风险因素"**和**"管理层对财务状况和经营情况的讨论与分析"**。 🤝 Cursor 合作

## 近期动态：和 Cursor 的合作（2026 年 4 月） $60.0BCursor 隐含估值$1.5B期权终止费$8.5B延期服务费 ENGLISH · ORIGINAL Recent Developments Collaboration with Cursor In April 2026, we entered into a compute and option agreement with Anysphere, Inc., doing business as Cursor, a San Francisco-based private software company ("Cursor"), which we view as a compelling extension of our strategy to vertically integrate compute infrastructure, models, and applications. Under the compute agreement, we will provide Cursor with certain GPU cluster compute capacity and collaborate to improve existing models, including Grok, and potentially to jointly develop AI models and related model-specific deliverables or products. With the option agreement, we have the right, but not obligation, to acquire Cursor at a predetermined price or pay a fee. We 13 Table of Contents consider software development as a strategically important use case for AI given its combination of high-quality structured data, rapid feedback cycles and frequent, mission-critical usage. AI-assisted coding workflows generate context-rich, verifiable data that can enhance model training and performance, while also driving sustained inference demand. The depth of Cursor's integration with a high-frequency coding workflow generates valuable developer interaction data, including coding generation prompts, iteration cycles, and software architecture decisions. We expect that access to this data will enhance our model training and inference, including with respect to Grok. 中文翻译 **近期动态：和 Cursor 的合作（2026 年 4 月）** **近期动态** **与 Cursor 的合作** 2026 年 4 月，我们和 **Anysphere, Inc.**（对外品牌叫 **Cursor**，一家总部在旧金山的**私有软件公司**）签了**一份"算力 + 期权"协议**。**我们认为这是"垂直整合算力、模型和应用"战略的一个有说服力的延伸**。协议包含两块： - **算力协议（Compute Agreement）**：我们会**给 Cursor 提供一定的 GPU 集群算力**——同时**合作改进现有模型**（包括 **Grok**）——并且**可能会共同开发 AI 模型和相关的"模型专用"交付物/产品**。 - **期权协议（Option Agreement）**：我们**有权（但没有义务）以一个预定的价格收购 Cursor**——或者**支付一笔费用**。 **我们认为"软件开发"是 AI 的一个战略性重要使用场景**，原因有三点： - **高质量的结构化数据**； - **快速的反馈循环**； - **高频、关键任务式**的使用。 **AI 辅助写代码的工作流**会**产生"上下文丰富、可验证"的数据**——既能**提升模型训练和表现**，又能**持续拉动推理需求**。**Cursor 和"高频写代码"工作流深度集成**——它能拿到**宝贵的开发者交互数据**，包括**生成代码的提示词（prompts）、迭代轮次、软件架构决策**。**我们预期，拿到这些数据会提升我们的模型训练和推理能力**——**对 Grok 尤其如此**。 💵 $60B 收购 + $10B 终止费

## Cursor 收购对价 $60B + 终止费 $1.5B / 延期服务费 $8.5B ENGLISH · ORIGINAL Meanwhile, by providing access to our large-scale compute infrastructure, we believe we can help Cursor deliver faster and higher quality user experiences. The collaboration with Cursor may also accelerate our AI strategy by integrating our AI models more directly into developer workflows and expanding the distribution of our AI capabilities through high-engagement software interfaces. The consideration for the acquisition of Cursor, if any, after the closing of this offering would consist of shares of our Class A common stock based on an implied equity value of Cursor of $60.0 billion, and the price of our Class A common stock that equals the volume-weighted average closing price thereof over the seven consecutive trading days immediately preceding the closing of the acquisition. If either (i) we decide to terminate the option agreement or (ii) Cursor is eligible to and decides to terminate due to our material breach of the option agreement (subject to notice and cure provisions), Cursor is entitled to a $1.5 billion termination fee under the option agreement and an $8.5 billion deferred services fee under the compute agreement. These fees are payable in cash (or Class A common stock, if this offering has not been consummated at the time the fees become payable). For more information about our arrangement with Cursor, including our option to acquire the company, please refer to "Business—Collaboration with Cursor" included elsewhere in this prospectus. 中文翻译 **Cursor 收购对价 $60B + 终止费 $1.5B / 延期服务费 $8.5B** **同时，通过把我们的大规模算力基础设施开放给 Cursor**，我们认为**能帮 Cursor 给用户更快、更高质量的体验**。**和 Cursor 的合作**还有可能**加速我们的 AI 战略**——**让我们的 AI 模型更直接地嵌进开发者工作流**——并通过**高粘性的软件界面扩大 AI 能力的分发**。 **收购 Cursor 的对价**（如果最终发生的话）：**本次发行完成之后**，收购对价**用我们的 A 类普通股（Class A common stock）股票支付**—— - 基础是 **Cursor 隐含股权价值 $60.0 billion（600 亿美元）**； - 股价取**收购完成前连续 7 个交易日**我们 **A 类普通股**的**成交量加权平均收盘价（VWAP）**。 **如果出现下面任一情况**： - **我们主动决定终止期权协议**；或 - **Cursor 有权终止**且**因我们"重大违约"决定终止**（有通知和宽限期条款）， 那 **Cursor 有权拿到**： - **$1.5 billion（15 亿美元）的终止费**——来自**期权协议**； - **$8.5 billion（85 亿美元）的延期服务费**——来自**算力协议**。 这些费用**用现金支付**（如果**到支付时本次发行还没完成**，**也可以用 A 类普通股**支付）。更多关于我们和 Cursor 安排（包括**收购期权**）的信息，请看招股书其他章节的**"业务—与 Cursor 的合作"**。 🤖 Anthropic + Grok-5

很多人一听到“举证不能”四个字，心里就凉了半截，觉得官司肯定输定了。其实还真不一定。我处理过一个合同纠纷，对方拿不出发货单，按常理说这就是典型的举证不能。但最后我们赢了，靠的是从对方的对账单里抠出了关键线索。 举证不能，表面看是没证据，但法律上真正的败诉点在于：你能不能说服法官“事实可能存在但证明不了”。所以突破口就在这儿——不是非得自己有无懈可击的证据，而是要让对方的证据链出现裂痕。比如，你说我欠你钱，但你拿不出借条，可你有转账记录，那你可以反过来要求对方说明转账性质。这时候举证责任就转移了。 律师常说的“举证责任倒置”就是一把好武器。还有些案子，对方拿不出书证，但法律允许用推定、日常经验法则来弥补。比如你作为员工被公司解雇，公司说不上班违纪，却拿不出打卡记录，那法律上就可以推定管理缺失，公司反而得吃哑巴亏。 所以别一听“没证据”就认栽。关键是要理清谁该举证、举什么证、举不到会怎样。很多时候，劣势只是看起来的纸老虎，真正聪明的人会用法律规则反过来挖对方的坑。

## 第三方算力服务协议（Anthropic 案例）+ Grok-5 325,000NVIDIA GPU 数量$1.25B每月费用（至 2029/5）3 个月提前 90 天可终止 ENGLISH · ORIGINAL Compute Services Agreements with Third Parties We believe our compute infrastructure and related strategy provides us with substantial flexibility in how we allocate and monetize capacity. We have the ability to use compute resources to support our proprietary AI applications (such as Grok-5, which is currently being trained at COLOSSUS II), while also providing access to select compute capacity to third-party customers. For example, in May 2026, we entered into Cloud Services Agreements with Anthropic PBC ("Anthropic"), an AI research and development public benefit corporation, with respect to access to compute capacity across COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II. Compute capacity provided includes approximately 325,000 NVIDIA GPUs, backed by hyperscale-class CPUs, exabyte-scale storage and high-speed networking and interconnects purpose-built for AI workloads. Pursuant to these agreements, the customer has agreed to pay us $1.25 billion per month through May 2029, with capacity ramping in May and June 2026 at a reduced fee. After the initial three-month period, the agreements may be terminated by either party upon 90 days' notice. The customer will retain ownership and intellectual property rights in its content, AI models, and related data. This structure allows us to monetize a portion of the compute capacity in our infrastructure, while still permitting reallocation of that capacity for our own internal initiatives if needed in the future. 中文翻译 **第三方算力服务协议（Anthropic 案例）+ Grok-5** **与第三方的算力服务协议** **我们认为，自己的算力基础设施和相关战略**——**让我们在"如何分配和变现算力"这件事上**有**很大的灵活性**。我们可以**用算力跑自己的 AI 应用**（比如 **Grok-5——目前正在 COLOSSUS II 上训练**），**也可以把一部分算力开放给第三方客户**。 **案例**：**2026 年 5 月**，我们和 **Anthropic PBC**（对外叫 **Anthropic**，一家"**AI 研究和开发的公益公司**"）签了**云服务协议（Cloud Services Agreements）**——把 **COLOSSUS 和 COLOSSUS II** 的算力开放给 Anthropic 用。 - **算力规模**：**大约 325,000 块 NVIDIA GPU**。 - **配套**：**超大规模 CPU（hyperscale-class CPUs）**、**艾字节级（exabyte-scale）存储**、**为 AI 工作负载专门搭的高速网络和互联**。 **协议条款**： - 客户**每月付我们 $1.25 billion（12.5 亿美元）**，**一直付到 2029 年 5 月**。 - 2026 年 5、6 月份**算力爬坡期**，**费率打折扣**。 - **头 3 个月**之后，**任何一方提前 90 天通知就可以终止**。 - **客户保留**其**内容、AI 模型和相关数据的知识产权**。 **这种结构**—— - **让我们能把一部分算力变现**； - 同时**保留了未来"如果需要，把这部分算力挪回给我们自己用"的灵活性**。 💼 算力双重变现

前段时间北京下大雪，有个外卖小哥在送餐途中摔伤了，公司说这不属于工伤，理由是“恶劣天气下的意外属于不可抗力”。其实，这个理由站不住脚，工伤认定的核心是看事故是否与工作相关，跟天气好坏没有直接关系。 很多人的误区是：觉得风雪天、暴雨天出的事，就应该算工伤。但法律上，恶劣天气并不会自动改变认定标准。相反，只要是在工作时间和工作场所内，因工作原因受伤，不管那天是下刀子还是下沙子，都照样能认定。比如，环卫工在暴雪天扫街时滑倒骨折，只要是在工作时段、履行工作职责，就属于工伤。 不过，真的有区别。区别在于，恶劣天气下，员工需要比平时多注意一点：尽量保留天气预警的截图、路况视频、同事或路人证言，这些是证明“事故与工作存在因果关系”的关键证据。另外，如果公司强行要求员工在极端天气下冒风险外出工作，导致受伤，单位还要承担额外的法律责任，甚至可能涉及安全生产责任问题。 一句话总结：天气是背景，不是理由。只要你在上班干活时受伤，别管外面刮风还是下雹子，记住第一时间送医、留证据、找单位申报，别因为“天气不好”就主动放弃维权。